Bitcoin remains stuck in a range, but certain altcoins are showing signs of breaking down in the near term.
The bulls tried to shake Bitcoin (BTC) from its slumber on Sept. 7 but the rally was short-lived. This suggests a lack of clarity between the bulls and the bears about Bitcoin’s next directional move. Analyst CryptoCon said on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin could remain in a “mid cycle lull” until the start of the next bull run in November 2024.
On similar lines, ARK Invest said in a report that cryptocurrencies could continue to face headwinds in the remainder of 2023 due to several macroeconomic issues such as interest rates, gross domestic product estimates, unemployment, and inflation.
In comparison, the bulls will be closely following the decision of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on the various Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications. In addition to that, the race for a spot Ethereum ETF also began officially on Sep. 6 with filings from VanEck and ARK Invest. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart expects more Ethereum ETF filings to happen in the next few days.
Could Bitcoin’s range-bound action increase the selling pressure on altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin reached the 20-day exponential moving average ($26,419) on Sep. 7 but the bulls could not overcome this obstacle. This suggests that the bears are fiercely guarding the 20-day EMA.
However, the failure of the bears to challenge the crucial support at $24,800 suggests that selling dries up at lower levels. The relative strength index (RSI) is trying to form a positive divergence, indicating that the bearish momentum is weakening.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA. That clears the path for a sustained recovery toward $28,143.
On the contrary, if the $24,800 support crumbles, the BTC/USDT pair could start a downtrend. There is a minor support at $24,000 but it may not arrest the decline. The pair could eventually reach pivotal support at $20,000.
Ether (ETH) continues to trade inside a narrow range between the 20-day EMA ($1,668) and the formidable support at $1,626.
The failure of the bulls to clear the overhead hurdle at the 20-day EMA increases the risk of a breakdown. Below $1,626, the ETH/USDT pair could retest the Aug. 17 intraday low of $1,550. Buyers may purchase the dip to this level with vigor because if the support cracks, the pair could plunge to $1,368.
Time is running out for the bulls. If they want to prevent the collapse, they will have to first drive the price above the 20-day EMA and thereafter attempt a rally to the 50-day SMA ($1,762). That could increase the likelihood of the pair being range-bound between $2,000 and $1,626 for a few more days.
The bulls tried to push BNB (BNB) above the breakdown level of $220 on Sep. 6 but the bears did not relent. This indicates that the sellers are trying to flip the $220 level into resistance.
There is a minor support at $211 but if bears pull the price below it, the BNB/USDT pair could reach the psychological level at $200. This level is likely to attract solid buying by the bulls. If the price rebounds off this support, it will indicate that the pair may consolidate between $200 and $220 for a while.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level and rises above $220, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. That could launch a recovery toward the downtrend line.
The bulls purchased XRP’s (XRP) dip below $0.50 on Sep. 6 but the failure to start a strong rebound indicates a lack of demand at higher levels.
The bears will try to strengthen their position further by yanking the price below $0.50. If they can pull it off, the XRP/USDT pair could nosedive to the next major support at $0.41. This fall is likely to be swift as there is no major support between $0.50 and $0.41.
On the contrary, if the price once again turns up from the current level, it will suggest that the bulls are trying to flip $0.50 into support. A break above the 20-day EMA will indicate that the pair is likely to oscillate between $0.50 and $0.56 for a while longer.
Cardano (ADA) formed a Doji candlestick pattern on Sep. 6 and again on Sep. 7, which shows indecision between the bulls and the bears.
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.26) and the RSI in the negative territory enhance the prospects of a downside breakdown. If the price skids below $0.25, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to the critical support at $0.24.
On the upside, the bears have repeatedly halted the advance near the 20-day EMA, hence this becomes an important level to watch out for. If bulls force the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could reach the overhead resistance at $0.28.
The bulls tried to shove Dogecoin (DOGE) above the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on Sep. 6 but the bears held their ground.
The price remains stuck between the 20-day EMA and the horizontal support at $0.06. When the price trades inside a range, it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout but the downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI near 40 signal an edge to the bears. Below $0.06, the DOGE/USDT pair could descend to $0.055.
This negative view will invalidate in the near term if bulls kick and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest the start of a stronger recovery to $0.07 and eventually to $0.08.
Solana (SOL) has been gradually correcting inside the large range between $14 and $27.12. The bears have been selling the relief rallies to the 20-day EMA ($20.53) indicating that the sentiment remains negative.
The repeated failure of the bulls to thrust the price above the 20-day EMA suggests that the path of least resistance is to the downside. If bears tug the price below the immediate support at $19, the SOL/USDT pair could slump to $18 and subsequently to $16.
The bulls are likely to have other plans. They will try to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair may reach the overhead resistance at $22.30. This is an important level for the bears to defend because a break above it could clear the path for a potential rally to $26.
Related: Why is Bitcoin price down today?
Toncoin (TON) attempted a rebound on Sep. 6 but the long wick on the Sep. 7 candlestick shows that bears continue to sell on rallies.
The 20-day EMA ($1.68) remains the key level to keep an eye on in the short term. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again attempt to drive the TON/USDT pair above the overhead resistance at $2.07.
Contrarily, if the price slips below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the traders are aggressively booking profits. The first stop on the downside is at the breakout level of $1.53 and then the 50-day SMA ($1.44).
The bears pulled Polkadot (DOT) below the strong support at $4.22 on Sep. 6 but they could not sustain the lower levels as seen from the long tail on the candlestick. This shows buying at lower levels.
However, the bulls could not maintain the momentum and push the price to the 20-day EMA ($4.41). This shows that every minor rally is being sold into. The bears have pulled the price back to the important support at $4.22. If this support crumbles, the DOT/USDT pair could fall to the psychological support at $4.
If bulls want to make a comeback, they will have to propel the price above the 20-day EMA. If they do that, the pair is likely to climb to the downtrend line. This is the key level to keep an eye on because a break above it could signal that the downtrend is ending.
Buyers tried to propel Polygon (MATIC) above the 20-day EMA ($0.56) for the past three days but the bears held their ground. This suggests that traders are selling on minor rallies.
The bears will try to pull the price below the immediate support at $0.53. If they manage to do that, the MATIC/USDT pair could plummet to the vital support at $0.50.The bulls are expected to protect this level with vigor because a break below it may open the gates for a further fall to $0.45.
The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA to suggest that the bearish pressure is reducing. That could start a recovery to $0.64 where the bears may again mount a strong defense.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.